Clausura Previews

In the absence of one here, I’ll post a link to my Clausura previews.

SI.com: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/soccer/02/10/malyon.clausura/index.html 

FourFourTwo: http://fourfourtwo.com/blogs/argiebargy/archive/2012/02/10/clausura-2012-preview-organisation-key-to-ver-243-n-s-hopes-of-a-fairytale-ending.aspx

(and a small feature for MirrorFootball): http://www.mirrorfootball.co.uk/opinion/blogs/mirror-football-blog/South-American-football-blog-Will-Juan-Sebastian-Veron-s-football-career-have-a-fairytale-ending-by-Ed-Malyon-article864373.html

Balotelli in song

No, he didn’t suddenly act on his lustings for the Arsenal midfielder, it’s just a cross between early-noughties crooners Travis and the story of Mario Balotelli’s lively beginnings in England.

Gary Cahill – The Debate

Image courtesy of chelseafc.com

Gary Cahill: The case against by Scott Carey     

1. He is exactly the same player as John Terry

This may seem a bit harsh as Cahill seems to be a pretty good lad but in footballing terms he shares many similarities with the England captain. Both fit the mould of a traditional English centre back: good leaders, physically imposing, capable of chipping in with the odd goal and strong and committed in the tackle and aerial duels.

Strong to the first ball and best when the ball is in front of them, Cahill and Terry are both vulnerable to the ball in behind which has been causing Chelsea so many problems as of late, with Arsenal taking advantage to the most devastating effect in their 5-3 win.

What Terry really needs, particularly with AVB at the helm, is a surrogate Ricardo Carvalho. This being a positionally astute defender who can clean up the second ball and cover in behind. Contrary to popular opinion this role does not require pace, as Ricky proved, but rather a very specific and specialised skill set. The worry with a Cahill – Terry partnership will be that they become extremely flat as neither one performs this role and will therefore be as vulnerable as the current set up to the ball in behind.

2. His goals have inflated his stock

Cahill has proved to be quite an astute finisher at the top level and has scored 13 goals in his 130 apps for Bolton, including a fine goal last week against Everton and a brace against former club Aston Villa. However, as this well researched piece by The Football Front shows, Cahill’s stats in key defensive areas such as tackle success and pass completion are far lower than JT’s and Manchester City’s Joleon Lescott.

A Moneyball, Billy Beane like analysis of Cahill would certainly point towards an inflated value as he has not been brought in to score goals (they have Torres for that) but to plug a leaky defence. He may look comfortable on the ball and in front of goal but his tackle success rate is poor by the standards of his England compatriots.

However the silver lining for Chelsea fans will be his relatively good interception rate, showing his ability to read the game, and his reported £7m price tag, meaning his value may be inflated but he isn’t going to break the bank or prove an embarrassing, expensive mistake.  Still, the under fire David Luiz is one of the best readers of the game and racks up plenty of interceptions, it is his positioning and concentration levels that are not up to scratch, two very tricky abilities to master and to quantify through statistics.

3. Bolton have conceded the most goals in the league

With Gary Cahill an ever present entity at the heart of the defensive with the worst record in the league (46 goals conceded and it’s not even half way through the season yet) only so many excuses can be made regarding the deficiencies of his team mates to keep the opposition out.

He may be technically and physically gifted but is Cahill the kind of committed defender who is hell bent on stopping the opposition at all costs? Will he throw his body on the line to get blocks in and master the art of playing dirty when the time requires it as the best centre backs (Nemanja Vidic, Ricardo Carvalho, John Terry) have done? These may be the questions which Arsene Wenger asked himself when he baulked at Bolton’s £20m valuation of the player in the summer.

Yes the responsibility to marshal the defence and the protection offered up either side and in front of him will be of a higher ilk, and Chelsea will dominate more games he takes part in now. Nevertheless this record simply speaks for itself and is a worrying indication of his basic ability to stop opponents in their tracks.

Gary Cahill: The case for by Ed Malyon

1. A tactical point

Much has been made this season of Chelsea’s high line, particularly in their early Premier League games under new boss Andre Vilas-Boas. As the pressure built, the Portuguese boss was forced to change his game plan to one that suited his players – betraying his philosophy, but a necessary dose of pragmatism. He discussed this in a press conference, claiming there were three levels of ‘block’ the high, medium and deep ‘block’. Now, of course this could be true, but at Porto his game plan was to press high throughout the team, and obviously that necessitates the advancement of the defensive line. Seemingly the key issue with his desired tactic is John Terry, a player who is so obviously not cut out for defending high up the pitch. They switched to a medium block and got better results, but there is little doubt that Vilas-Boas would prefer to revert to type, and this is where Cahill may come in. In this case, it is an intelligent transfer as Cahill is a player who is far better equipped to play higher, with no better stat demonstrating this, than the fact that his awareness and management of a defensive line have seen him win more offsides per game than any other defender in the league.

Source: WhoScored?

2. The price

As far as value goes, £7m for an international centre-half isn’t bad going. Especially one that is still to reach the prime of his career, and one who had such a strong season last year. Granted, he hasn’t performed especially well this campaign, but Owen Coyle’s side does seem to be lacking in a lot of areas, and he is alongside Zat Knight, a defender strong in the air but very questionable in other areas. Considering clubs were offering double that for his services last summer (a sum Bolton deemed insufficient), there is little argument that despite the current lull in big-money transfers (PSG excluded), he represents value, perhaps not just in what he offers now, but what he could offer over the span of his five and a half year deal.

3. He has all the necessary building blocks

With defenders, it is sometimes foolish to look into stats too much. Alex Ferguson found this out when he first dabbled with the idea of basing transfers on statistical analysis and sold Jaap Stam. He later admitted that he’d made an error on this, and the fact that the Dutchman was making fewer tackles was not due to his decline as a footballer, more that his positioning was better. Cahill is a player who is quite clearly in a different situation. Apart from ‘goals conceded’ it’s hard for defenders from top sides to feature high up the defensive rankings due to a lack of work, Cahill – of course – did not have these problems at Bolton. Only four defenders have made more clearances per game this season, only two have blocked more shots. This does not tell you the whole story but it does tell you something, and that is that he does get there to make the blocks, and he does get the ball away from danger. These, as well as his ability to catch players offside, make for the beginnings of a useful defender, and allied with higher-level experience (particularly in Europe and in internationals), he could become a very good all-round centre back.

Waka Waka and All That….

It’s time for Africa. Again.

18 months since the world focussed its gaze on Africa for Earth’s greatest footballing showpiece, a smaller proportion of that world will once more set its eyes there for the African cup of nations.

Much like the Copa America, something I watched all but three games of last summer, it seems to be quite a niche tournament that few people really get into.

What interest there might have been in the tournament will also have been impacted upon by the lack of some of Africa’s leading football nations. Winner of the last three CAN tournaments, Egypt, failed to qualify, as did Togo, Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa. With four of those being some of the traditional heavyweights of the continent, there’s no doubt that the interest levels (not to mention the TV revenues) will have been damaged, but it gives us a chance to see some other emerging nations.

In much the same way as traditional minnows Venezuela and Peru shocked everyone in the CONMEBOL showpiece last June, there is the opportunity for the likes of Zambia, Gabon and Guinea to do the same.

Cesar Farias got Venezuela to where they are by being organised in defence and looking to score on the counter. The challenge for the likes of Zambia will be to recreate this model, and they have the tools in their playing squad, it’s a case of whether the management can instill the discipline and system.

Of course, there are other ways to succeed, they may wish to go all out and attack, something we could see from tournament big guns Senegal. Blessed with the majority of their strength in the forward department, it will be interesting to see how they use the talents of Demba Ba and Moussa Sow when Papiss Cissé and Dame N’Doye are knocking on the door. The temptation must be to play at least three of their talented quintet, and expect them to be direct given that they do lack midfield craft, despite having an abundance of graft with N’Daw and Diamé playing in the middle.

This is where Ghana really have the edge, and they are rightful favourites to return to the summit of African football. From the evidence of Brazil’s friendly in Gabon, the pitches aren’t of a great standard, so slick passing football won’t be particularly easy. Regardless, the strength, guile and all-round game of Kwadwo Asamoah and André Ayew is something none of their major rivals for the tournament can compete with. Avoiding the facile stereotyping of  African players as willing, enthusiastic runners, Sulley Muntari and Anthony Annan both have extra strings to their bow which take them to a different level to many of the other midfielders in the competition.

The Ivory Coast, of course, will be in with a chance of winning it too. Captain Didier Drogba will possibly be making his last appearance at a major competition if the Elephants can’t qualify for Brazil in 2014, so having never won the African Nations Cup, he will be hoping to get his first major honour in that famous orange shirt, and his country’s first for twenty years.

Even without Romaric, Emerse Faé and Guy Demel, it is a squad that nearly rivals Ghana for all-round ability. They certainly boast more going forward than defensively though, and Didier Zokora and Cheick Tioté’s ability to screen their defence may be just as crucial as the roles for forwards Drogba and Doumbia. Their roster is deepest in the wide areas, where the likes of Konan, Kalou and Gervinho all impress in Europe’s biggest leagues (aguably Gradel too) and Abdulkader Keita is an experienced Champions League winger.

Morocco are a side on an upward curve once more. Without a World Cup appearance in quite some time, there is a mix of players both approaching and enjoying their respective primes in a midfield that has a real cutting edge to it. Belhanda is part of the Montpellier team that lies second in Ligue 1, and Anzhi’s pair of Mbark Boussoufa and Mehdi Carcela provide flair and pace whether they are utilised wide or through the middle. Marouane Chamakh has disappointed Arsenal fans since his free transfer from Bordeaux, but on this stage he won’t be lacking in confidence as he does in England’s top flight.

There is also the mystery aspect of teams like Niger and Botswana (who are tournament debutants). Burkina Faso claim to have a 16 year old Chelsea midfielder whilst the club denies knowledge of the same individual! In many ways, swathes of Africa still form part of Europe’s footballing blind spot, and as I did in Argentina last June, I would love for those traditional expectations to be blown apart by the emergence of newer footballing nations, the opportunity is there…

Ronaldinho Practicing Free-Kicks…. Just Wow

The precision is just ludicrous.